MULTIDIMENSIONAL THREAT TO THE SECURITY OF PAKISTAN

Introduction

The term ‘national security’ is essentially a states’ mission to meet internal as well as external threats to the existence of the state!

There are many elements associated with national security; however, in short, a nation requires mature political system, economic strength, proactive diplomacy, military muscle and above all, unity to make sure that it is secure.

Pakistan, due to its geo-strategic location, immature politicians and judiciary, psycho-social makeup, vulnerable inner front , poor economy, two hostile neighbors’, Indian and Western presence in Afghanistan, nuclear capability and above all, due to its ‘ideology’ faces a number of security issues today. The so-called fourth pillar of the state, media is an added threat to our beloved homeland, Pakistan.

The concept of Pakistan’s national security has a close linkage with regional and global environment which have undergone much change in the past three to four decades especially after ‘Cold War’ and much more in post 9/11 years. Today, so-called terrorism/religious extremism, proliferation/Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), military rule, and human rights issues are seen as a threat to global stability.

International Environment

United States of America

US with a declining but good-to-do economy, overwhelming military strength and vast political clout continue to play the leading role. Its international as well as a few national policies are framed by Zionist Israel. US have taken several unilateral offensives against international laws to defend its own national interest but in case of Israel, USA has failed badly.

European Union, UK, Britain, France and Commonwealth

EU, Commonwealth, UK and several other western countries are seen as pro-US due to common security related issues and common agenda. Similar to US these are also controlled by Israeli Puppets.

RUSSIA

Russia is likely to play a limited role in Global issues and relatively important role in regional issues mostly taking China onboard. But very soon, Russia will be, once again, one of the superpowers.

China

China is likely to adopt a non-confrontational approach towards USA and will focus on developing its economy. But China’s will to establish military bases in Pakistan (probably KPK Province) is a clear indication that China wants to counter American (and its allies) presence in Afghanistan. China will continue to support Pakistan in issues relating to Indo-Pak relations until and unless they are not against China’s own national interests. Moreover, China is likely to play a greater role in global affairs in coming years because of its booming economy and ever increasing military strength. Furthermore, military, economic, and diplomatic help can be expected from China in any future conflict with India.

Indian-US nexus is trying its best to dent Pakistan-China relations. They are mainly doing it by causing religious unrest in China’s Xinjiang province. India’s ‘Cold Start’ Doctrine (as discussed later) cannot be executed as long as Pakistan and China are allies. Engaging forces on Northern as well as Western Border will be suicidal for India.

Muslim Ummah

Muslim Ummah has so far not been able to develop political consensus on key issues. Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has failed miserably. It is the need of the hour to establish Muslim Peace Keeping Organization/Muslim Defense League. The developed Muslim countries must help under-developed and developing Muslim countries. Unified approach is needed to tackle the problems faced by Muslim Ummah today.

United Nations Organization

UN replaced League of Nations after Second World War as international peace keeping body. But just like League of Nations, UN has been used by Western Powers to legitimize all actions of theirs under leadership of USA against Muslims, whether it is regarding imposing sanctions on Iran due to its nuclear programme or invading Iraq for crude oil under the pretext of finding Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Muslims have been the victim of ‘international injustice by UN’.

Global War On Terror (GWOT)

Despite being the worst victim and front-line state in GWOT, international community still views Pakistan as a breeding ground for international terrorism. Any other major international terrorist act like 9/11, London or Madrid Bombing, 26/11 is likely to draw strong international reaction against Pakistan.

India

Indian threat cannot be ignored. India is becoming increasingly relevant to global and regional super powers and its strategic partnership with the US and nuclear deal between them is dangerous for Pakistan. Increasing military and political co-operation between India and Israel is also a threat to Pakistan. In Israel’s long-term plan, India will provide Israel with the manpower required to destroy ‘LAST FORT OF ISLAM’, Pakistan! Furthermore, India enjoys an excellent position to strike Pakistan. None of these things (strategic position and enough manpower) are enjoyed by Israel itself.

Indian aggressive and diplomatic foreign policy is making concerted efforts to implicate/reflect Pakistan as an epicenter of global terrorism in order to isolate it regionally as well as internationally. Apart from trying to isolate Pakistan in the region, Indians are pressing hard for securing a permanent seat in UN Security Council to have political edge over Pakistan. Unfortunately, it has found current government (PPP) as an ally. In case of permanent seat, India will be able to veto any resolution it wants to.

Afghanistan

The situation on the western border has worsened with the decline of Taliban Rule and presence of foreign forces in the heart of Asia, Afghanistan.

Exploitation of the situation by India has added a new dimension to the security challenges of Pakistan.

The border must be fenced, mined and properly drawn between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Relations with the state of Afghanistan need to be redefined and we have to differentiate between our friends and foes.

Relevance of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

SCO is actually trying to limit American influence in the region. Pakistan must join SCO as soon as possible.

Internal Threats

Sectarian divide, lack of unity and consensus, regional prejudices, and increasing demand for ‘greater provincial autonomy’. This needs to be stopped as this is helping India, Israel and US in their “Great Game Plan”.

Our political system has not matured due to lack of continuity, non-representation of middle and lower class and government by so-called Elites. Today, we stand in the middle of nowhere. We neither have dictatorship nor true democracy. Though both are of no use but standing in the middle of nowhere is also of no good.

Our economy is poor due to corruption, tax evasion and mismanagement. Today, we totally depend on foreign aid and loans. Energy and security problems coupled with inconsistent government policies are hampering industrial progress. All this, along with high rate of population growth has resulted in slow, overall, development rate.

Our Judiciary is not only corrupt but also incompetent. Political influence has worsened the situation.

Presence of millions of Afghan Refugees in Pakistan is an added problem. Rate of unemployment has risen significantly. This has also given rise to Kalashnikov Culture which has not only given rise to robberies and murders but also terrorism. These Afghanis, in collaboration with foreign intelligence agencies are spreading terrorism in Pakistan.

Perhaps, one of the major internal threat to our nation is due to our incapable, incompetent, irresponsible and so-called ‘free’ media. Our media is ‘free-to-criticize-only’. It is spreading hatred against Pakistan Army and Ideology of Pakistan. Today, due to this ‘Awaara’ media our lower class and upper class youth is no more interested in liberating Kashmir and Palestine from oppressive rule of hostile nations. What they want is a luxurious life, mostly in United States. Brothers and sisters this is NOT the way out. As Allama Iqbal said: “The Western civilization will commit suicide with its own dagger, It will be like a nest on a delicate bough which will neither be lasting nor permanent”. Media is no less than a nuclear weapon and has a key role to play in public opinion. A code of conduct is required to be implemented which will lead to mature and balanced reporting.

Baluchistan Liberation Army is another threat. External forces, from their bases in Afghanistan, are now operating in Pakistan’s largest but thinly populated province as part of their ‘Great Game Plan’. Among these external forces the leading role is of India, US, Israel and a few Middle East Countries. Baluchistan has been a victim of neglect. Social and economic uplift programmes are desperately needed there. Furthermore, Baluchistan’s mineral potential should be explored and exploited. This will not only provide employment opportunities but the province will also get developed.

Undoubtedly, the biggest internal threat Pakistan currently is facing is of terrorism as well as extremism. The basis of extremism in Pakistan was laid with initiation of Afghan Jihad but the situation was later exploited by foreign and anti-state elements. Terrorism has resulted in Pakistan’s poor international image. Poverty, lack of education, unemployment and poor media handling exposes our youth to exploitation by anti-sate elements. Don’t worry…our nuclear arsenal is safe. India is quite brilliantly exploiting the situation and trying to convince other nations that Pakistan’s Nuke’s are unsafe.

External Threats

International Media

There is a well-planned as well as well funded campaign in international media against Pakistan and Pakistan’s Armed Forces.

Media is just like a nuclear weapon and can change the views of the mases. It is not only being used to deteriorate our international image but also as a tool to destroy our Islamic Ideology. Unfortunately, General (R) Pervez Musharraf aided them in their mission.

Indian T.V. Channels and Movies needs to be banned immediately.

Indian and American Presence in Afghanistan

As discussed earlier: Indian and American presence in Afghanistan is not only creating socio-economic problems in Pakistan but is also giving rise to terrorism and in several cases, religious extremism.

India, USA, UK, along with several other countries are continuously financing, training, and supporting terrorist to fight a so-called Jihad against Pakistan. Scores of Indian consulates operating in the near vicinity of Pak-Afghan borders is a clear indication if this.

Same countries are also supporting Baluchistan Liberation Army.

Indian Threat

Pakistan and India are in a continuous state of Cold War since 1947. And it's clear that they can't be friends! IT's something very clear! From cricket to Military Strength, Pakistan and India are always competing each other!

This clash between two nuclear arch rivals is visible also at global level in political and diplomatic spheres and on four occasions, since 1947, world has witnessed the physical incarnation of this prolonged duel. Major wars erupted in 1948, 1965 and 1971. Since early 1980’s both countries are fighting over Siachin. In 1986 both nations were again close to a full-scale war which was avoided by Gen. Zia’s political masterstroke. While in 1999 both countries fought bitterly over the hills of Kargil almost leading to a high intensity nuclear war. In 2002, another major standoff involving over a million armed troops was witnessed by the world. In 2008, after the Mumbai attacks, both countries again came dangerously close to another war. Countless border clashes over the Line of Control in Kashmir and across the working boundary took place and now have become a routine. Anyone of these can trigger a war between India and Pakistan. But it can be said for sure that like 1965 war, this time, war will either last for 2-3 week or unlike previous wars, this time war will last only for a day or two.

Indirect Indian Threat

Indian Indirect Threat consists of three major things: a. Media (already explained), b. Terrorism (already explained) c. Water Crisis.

India already have complete control over its western (our eastern) rivers and is now skillfully trying to control the flow our western (Afghanistan’s eastern) rivers as well. This is not only leading to scarcity of water in times of need in Pakistan but also to devastating floods such as those witnessed in Summer 2010.

Direct Indian Threat

Imbalance of military power is the biggest enemy to peace if the imbalance is in the favor of a Zionist State such as United States.

India is continuously increasing its military strength by inducting modern weapons and the balance of conventional military power will soon be in its favor until and unless we withdraw support for Coalition Forces in Afghanistan and disengage our Army from GWOT. Police, Frontier Corps, Frontier Constabulary, and Rangers should be trained on modern lines to counter growing terrorism within Pakistan. An over-engaged Army can never fight effectively.

Indian Cold Start Doctrine

Cold Start is a military doctrine developed by the Indian Armed Forces in 2004. It involves joint operations between India's three main services (Army, Navy, and Air Force) and integrated battle groups for offensive operations. Cold Start Doctrine aims at offensive operations on other countries in a surprising manner by minimizing the mobilization time and using Air Power.

Cold Start Doctrine is not a new concept, in fact, such strategy already exist in NATO.

Indian Cold Start Doctrine is said to be Pakistan specific. But it must be kept in mind that no country/army in the world will ever ‘publish’ (disclose) their future war strategy.

Defensive Corps/Holding Corps (Indian Army): As the name suggest, this group of Corps is meant to be deployed closer to border with a primary task of ‘hold the line’ or ‘defend the border/LoC’. In other words, holding the advancement of any invading army was/is the primary role of these corps.

Strike Corps (Indian Army): Primary task of strike corps is to attack Pakistan. Strike Corps are deployed far away from borders. So, India, will first have to move Strike Corp elements far away from existing garrisons/cantonments’ if they really want ‘Cold Start’ to be ‘Cold Start’ and not a ‘Failed Attempt’.

Cold Start is just a written doctrine and can NEVER be executed against Pakistan due to our nuclear weapons. But capability of our Defending Corps must be increased to reduce the risk. This doctrine can be very successfully executed against countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka because they neither have nuclear weapons nor any effective air defense systems.

Recommendations/Problems of Cold Start Doctrine

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and Pakistan Army (PA) should increase their Air Defense capability. PAF should induct more AWACS. The numerical difference between Indian Air Force (IAF) and PAF is reducing continuously largely due to induction of JF-17 Thunder in PAF. IAF, though inducting high level weapons and combat aircrafts holds a very poor record of maintenance. It has the worst crash record in history. Indian Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM’s) are no solution to Pakistan’s Ballistic and Cruise Missiles . But state-of-the-art fighter F-16 block C/D (E/F preferred) (or F-15 Eagle) should be inducted in PAF as soon as possible.

Sepoy’s formal education must be given priority. Today, “JAALI DEGREES’s” are not difficult to have. Uneducated sepoys cannot use military equipment in an excellent manner and they find it very difficult to take decisive action in battle field in times of absence of orders.

Pakistan Navy (PN) should induct fast moving ships in order to enhance their mobility. Furthermore, an aircraft carrier should be inducted on emergency basis to counter growing power of Indian Navy (IN). Blue Water IN with aircraft carrier and numerical strength will give us serious and effective resistance in case of war. Their amphibious landing capability is also a threat to our coastal areas.

Slow mobilization of large armour of Indian army was witnessed in 2002’s Military stand-off  It took three weeks for Indian armor divisions to converge on advance positions along Pakistan-India border.

Indian Army has been unsuccessful in any conventional war against Pakistan (other than 1971). So, it is obvious that it’s impossible for them to capture a nation having WMD’s.

Pakistan’s close ties with Gulf States and Indian dependence on these states for fuel is another problem for India. In future conflict with Pakistan, India will need huge fuel reserves because during the war they may not be exported fuel by Gulf States (though this can NOT be said for sure).

Pak-Iran military and strategic ties. Iran can supply Pakistan with critical energy resources in times of war. On the contrary, India has no such neighbor.

Wireless communication ability of Pakistan Army and Pakistan Rangers should be increased. Cantonments should be built near the border and more gun-ship helicopters should be inducted. However, before doing all this Pakistan should get rid of GWOT.

Indian instability. India is itself an unstable country and is constantly under threat of civil war.

India has conducted five major military war games since 2004, just to test and refine its Cold Start strategy and India is continually developing this strategy, which is still in its test phase.

Our Weak Points:

India has satellite surveillance capability with ability to update every inch of Pakistan within a few weeks.

Indian Navy is the sole regional power with ambition to achieve global power status.

Indian Armed Forces are numerically much stronger than Pakistan’s.

Kaafir Hai To Shamsheer Pe Rakhta Hai Bharosa
Momen Hai To Be Tegh Bhi Larta Hai Sipahi
(ALLAMA IQBAL)